Based on an article by David B. Loeper, CIMA^®, CIMC^®

 

 

"The wages of sin are death. But by the time taxes are taken out, it's just sort of a tired feeling." -Paula Poundstone

 

New Roth conversion calculators are showing up every day since income limitations have been lifted for high earners this year with a "one time special offer" to spread the tax bite of conversion out over two years. If you use one of these, don't say I didn't warn you about how misleading the results might be. Like any program, the output is only as good as the input, and some of those inputs are the assumptions the program uses in the analysis. These assumptions about the future (which is of course uncertain) can wildly skew the answer and make the Roth look artificially attractive.

 

A paper recently shared with me about Roth conversions, was written by a large, respectable investment firm and summarized key criterion of what would generally be the circumstances under which a Roth conversion, or use of the Roth, would make sense.

 

Paraphrasing the paper, the "best candidates for conversion" are those who have taxable assets to pay for the conversion, and ANY ONE of the following conditions are present:

 

1) Tax rates in retirement are unlikely to be materially lower than pre-retirement rates.

 

2) Conversion is taking place at a young age.

 

3) There will not be a material income need from the IRA, withdrawals from the IRA will be needed only much later in life, or the IRA assets are used to fund an estate goal (no need for withdrawals at all).

 

I have to disclose to you that I am personally highly skeptical of the promises of the Roth for a few reasons. First, I fear that future governments will change their mind on the Roth's tax exempt status. Understand that Roth conversions (or contributions) increase current tax revenues at the expense of future revenues. In essence the government is mortgaging future tax revenues to collect them now. Roll forward thirty years and imagine the justification Congress might argue for applying a surtax on all of these Roth multi-millionaires who don't pay any taxes at all. It seems it would be rather tempting for Congress to make a "needs based amendment" to the tax exempt status. It is certainly conceivable that this could occur, and while I wouldn't plan for it, I also would not assume there is no risk of it occurring either—especially for those using Roth to accumulate significant estate assets.

 

Secondly, the new Roth conversion rules are an option for anyone to execute at some date in the future, and with a highly uncertain future, common sense should tell us that we should not pay additional tax now with certainty if we can avoid it, unless there is a clearly compelling advantage to do so. In the future, this new Roth conversion option for high earners may be repealed, but I would not rush to pay a huge tax bite now if I can defer executing that option until some later date when some of the uncertainties of time have passed or a repeal of the option is imminent.

 

There is a clear benefit to the Roth conversion if one is highly confident that there will be no need to use it for any lifestyle goals at any time in the future and will remain in a high tax bracket throughout retirement. In such cases, conversion clearly makes sense.

 

In summary, I would caution everyone against is using conversion calculators that relinquish control of the analysis to an over simplified user interface. If the inputs do not require skill, there will be simplified assumptions buried in that simple interface that can lead to highly misleading and costly answers that spit out of the system. Such systems give a false sense of security at the price of sacrificing our lifestyles. If you can't figure out what is really going on under the hood or find the tipping point where the price and benefits cross in such decisions, then get in touch with an expert to help you make an informed objective decision.